War Scenario in the Middle East and Beyond: Part II*

ATTACK Iran to Open the Gate to the Eurasian Heartland A regime change or outright military invasion and occupation of Iran by the US and its Middle Eastern allies Israel, Saudi Arabia and other minor Arab countries will open the gate for US control of the Eurasian “Heartland”; the key to world domination according to Sir Halford Mackinder, considered the father of geopolitics.

But Iran is a whole lot different from Iraq that the US and its “coalition of the willing” invaded and overrun in 2003.

Iran is indeed a tougher nut to crack. In the US invasion of Iraq, it needed to assemble and consolidate its forces in neighboring Kuwait in 2003, and in Saudi Arabia in an earlier invasion. Against Iran, that would be next to impossible because Iran now has the capability to launch missile barrages to wipe out any pre-invasion assembly and consolidation of forces in Iran’s neighboring countries such as Saudi Arabia or Kuwait.

A tank and armored vehicle invasion of Iran will also hit a snag because Iran is one of the most mountainous countries in the world. A tank invasion can be canalized along Iran’s main roads that are ideal ambush sites and tank killing zones. A foot infantry invasion of Iran, on the other hand, would be placed at a great disadvantage because such invading foot warriors will be operating in a sea of population that is full of hatred against the foreign invaders; and without popular support, such invading forces are doomed.

The US so-called Air-Sea Battle concept, designed to neutralize the so-called A2AD (Anti-Access/Area Denial) capabilities of Iran, China, and Russia will also be inutile against Iran because Iran’s anti-ship missiles and other surface-to-surface ballistic missiles are all hidden in underground strategic tunnels that are impervious to any missile or air attacks from Israel, Saudi Arabia and US bases surrounding Iran.

Iran also has already deployed advance air defense systems supplied to them by Russia; hence, US and Israel cannot just attack Iran from the air with impunity.

Iran, on the other hand, can launch missile attacks against Saudi Arabian oil facilities in the gulf and close the Strait of Hormuz by mining the strait and deploying its anti-ship missiles along its mountainous coastline to prevent any oil tanker from crossing the strait. In the event that one or two US aircraft carrier strike groups happen to be inside the Persian Gulf when the shooting war with Iran starts, that could spell disaster for the unfortunate US sailors because they will become victims of a modern-day version of The Battle of Cannae – the classic example of “war of annihilation”!

Iran’s anti-ship ballistic and cruise missiles are capable of targeting the US aircraft carrier battle group components one by one until all of them will be lying at the bottom of the Persian Gulf. Of course it is an open secret that Israel possesses some 300 nuclear warheads. If Israel uses its nuclear weapons against Iran, Russia can react using its SARMAT ICBM against Israel.

A single blow from a SARMAT can literally erase Israel from the map; dome or no dome. And this could trigger a major nuclear exchange between the US and its principal allies against Russia and China; and a corresponding response from Russia and China as well. That would surely spell the end of the human race. So before that happens, concerned world leaders with cooler heads should tell Trump and its key allies to cool down a bit; lest we all perish!

(Read More: http://beyonddeadlines.com/2018/10/27/war-scenario-in-the-middle-east-and-beyond-part-i/)


*The opinion of this author is his/hers alone. It is not necessarily the views of Beyond Deadlines.

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Victor Corpus, M.P.A.
A graduate of Philippine Military Academy Cl’67; MPA ’90 from Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University; Brig. Gen. Victor N. Corpus, (AFP, retired) spent five years with the New People’s Army (1971-76); detained for 10 years under Martial Law and sentenced to death by musketry; and became Chief, Intelligence Service of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. Can be reached at: viccor2003@yahoo.com

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