Short Assessment of Trump’s Victory*

Due to popular demand, Beyond Deadlines is reposting every Monday the still relevant articles of retired Armed Forces of the Philippines intelligence chief Brig. General Victor Corpus that appeared in his BD’s column, Views from the East.

Nov. 15, 2016

THE Positive Side

Donald Trump’s victory may have saved the world from nuclear catastrophe, for the moment.

Had Hillary Clinton won, she would have pushed NATO to continue the dangerous provocation of war along Russia’s border and those so-called “freedom of navigation” provocations of China in the South China Sea. There is also the big possibility of WW III being triggered had she won because of her position of pursuing a regime change in Syria.

A US direct attack on Assad’s forces in Syria would bring Russian and American troops in direct confrontation. And since Chinese troops are now involved in helping train Syrian troops, and Iranian troops are also directly helping in Syria, the possibility is great that the Syrian conflict could lead to world war three.

In this sense, the victory of Trump over Hillary had postponed the possible extinction of our planet.

The Second Positive Side

The second positive aspect of Trump’s victory is that, for the first time perhaps, we have a non-traditional and independent President in the White House; a President that is not beholden and dictated to by the banking cabal that owns the Federal Reserve, controls the mainstream media, and choose US Presidents.

This, in itself, is a feat of Trump and the ordinary American people worthy of praise by the people of the world – a miracle indeed.

The Third Positive Side

We now have a US President who readily changes his mind when he realizes his mistake; and admits he was wrong. He has often been criticized for this frequent flip-flopping; but the world is better off with a President of the most powerful country in the world who is courageous enough to admit his mistakes and correct them.

Now the Bad Side

One of Trump’s campaign promises is to impose a 45% tax on Chinese imports. If Trump pushes through with this threat, he will trigger a trade war and force China to retaliate in kind. Both sides will end up the loser. But the sector that will be hurt most is the American consumer, for they are the ones buying cheap Chinese goods that will now become expensive.

Trump also accuses China of currency manipulation; while the US Federal Reserve is the biggest currency manipulator of all when it prints money by the trillions of dollars out of thin air to pay for its foreign debts, budget deficits, trade deficits, and liquidity for its banks. If China retaliates by dumping its US treasury bonds of more than a trillion, it could spell the final nail in the dollar’s coffin. The collapse of the dollar also means the collapse of the US economy.

The problem with trade wars is that they can easily get out of hand and turn into a shooting war. China had long anticipated the possibility of war with the lone superpower. They have been studying the Wolfowitz Doctrine, the Thucydides Trap, and Mearsheimer’s Offensive Realism. So China is well aware that the US will do all it can to stop its rise; and attack China while it is still weak or before it attains parity with the US.

China tried to hide its defensive and offensive preparation; heeding Deng Xiaoping’s call: “Observe calmly; secure our position; cope with affairs calmly; hide our capacities and bide our time; be good at maintaining a low profile; and never claim leadership.” Hence, despite US war provocations (i.e., 1996 Taiwan Incident; 1999 Bombing of Chinese embassy in Belgrade; the 2001 Hainan Island Incident; and the 2004 Operation Summer Pulse – all deliberate war provocation by the US vs China.), China kept its cool, continued its preparations, and bided its time.

Now, the situation has changed. China has created a 5,000-km underground Great Wall of strategic tunnels; underground subways in all major Chinese cities; underwater Great Wall of submarine sensors with swarms of underwater unmanned vehicles for anti-submarine warfare; China east coast Great Wall of anti-missile/anti-aircraft air defense system; 41 underground air bases; one underground submarine base; and last but not least – China’s “assassin’s mace.

The latter is China’s sort of “trump card” weapon that can trump US superiority in aircraft carrier battle groups, C4ISTAR (satellites and space stations), stealth fighters and bombers, and US bases designed to encircle China.

Since China’s defensive and offensive capacities, “hidden” before but not anymore, China accepted the US challenge in its last provocation in the South China Sea. And the US backed out.

If Trump will pursue his plan to initiate a trade war with China; China is now prepared, whether it be a trade war – or a hot one.

Let us just hope that Trump is not that foolish to plunge the world into the brink of another nuclear Armageddon.

If Trump decides to join the One Belt One Road initiative later on, then the world may at last find lasting peace.

 

* The opinion of these authors are theirs alone. It is not necessarily the views of Beyond Deadlines.

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